Avaliação de alterações no regime de metas de inflação no Brasil sob a ótica de um modelo de pequeno porte

Abstract

This dissertation evaluates possible changes in the Inflation Targeting Regime (ITR) in Brazil and their impact on key macroeconomic variables. Using a small-scale model inspired by new Keynesian economics, three scenarios of changes in the ITR were analyzed: raising the inflation target, expanding the monetary policy horizon, and incorporating the output gap into the monetary policy rule. The results reveal that raising the inflation target leads to higher interest rates and inflation, with modest gains in economic activity. Expanding the monetary policy horizon results in prolonged high inflation, but with lower volatility over time. On the other hand, incorporating the output gap into the monetary policy rule provides marginal smoothing of the business cycle but comes with significant costs in terms of monetary policy and inflation. These findings contribute to the ongoing debate on potential changes in the ITR, emphasizing the importance of considering the complexities and possible counterintuitive consequences of such changes